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The error rate for hand-counted ballots is about two percent.

All voting systems have nonzero error rates. This doesn’t surprise technologists, but does surprise the general public. There’s a myth out there that elections are perfectly accurate, down to the single vote. They’re not. If the vote is within a few percentage points, they’re likely a statistical tie. (The problem, of course, is that elections must produce a single winner.)

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Schneier on Security: Error Rates of Hand-Counted Voting Systems